Auckland Council maintains a ‘growth scenario’ to inform and coordinate investment decision-making across the council group, external partners and stakeholders across the region. The growth scenario informs policy and investment decisions, including the Long-term plan, various asset management plans and the Development Contributions Policy. 

Auckland Growth Scenario 2023 (AGS23) is the current growth scenario. It provides household, population and employment projections over a 30-year period from 2022 to 2052 (June year). It is primarily intended to provide a spatial and temporal distribution of growth that is aligned with the Future Development Strategy 2023-2053 (FDS). AGS23 is informed by custom population projections from Stats NZ, assumptions from the Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessment for the Auckland region 2023 (HBA) and the council’s adopted strategies and plans. 

This release updates AGS23 to version 1.1, replacing AGS23 v1 which was released in February 2024. In this release, the employment projection has been updated to better align projected employment growth with the intention of the Future Development Strategy, and better reflect the opportunities created by planned business land releases. The population and household projections have not been updated in this release.

The key assumptions for AGS23v1.1, how the scenario has been developed and how it informs the council’s planning are available in the pdf document, Auckland growth scenario AGS23v1.1 summary October 2024, download at the right.

Enquiries for the Growth Scenario Team (Land Use Research and Evaluation, and Growth and Spatial Strategy teams) can be sent to research@aucklandcouncil.govt.nz

Files for download

AGSv1_1_20240819_release_values. Excel spreadsheet

Format: MS Excel

Content: Total household, population and employment projections by MSM zone.

Data files

Format: ESRI geodatabase 10.1 (proprietary) and ESRI shapefile (open source)

AGSv1_1SHP

AGS2023v1_1.gdb

A spatial version of the growth scenario for use in GIS will be published on Auckland Council’s open data portal (https://data-aucklandcouncil.opendata.arcgis.com/search).

Auckland growth scenario AGS23v1.1 summary October 2024

Notes:

1. Data published here does not include property ownership information.

2. The data is provided in ESRI file geodatabase format, which requires GIS (Geographic Information System) software to process and open correctly.

3. Disclaimer: Auckland Council disclaims any liability whatsoever in connection with any action taken in reliance of this document for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it. 

Please send any questions to research@aucklandcouncil.govt.nz

See also

Future Development Strategy 2023-2053 (FDS)

The FDS provides the strategic direction and assumptions about the location and timing of growth and development in Auckland. It communicates key strategic outcomes and identifies spatial priority areas. It also indicates the timing of key bulk infrastructure required to enable development in future urban areas.

Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessment for the Auckland region 2023 (HBA)

The HBA includes background information on the regional growth projections and the business allocation model which form the basis of the current growth scenario.

Long-term Plan 2024-2034 (LTP)

The LTP 2024-2034 was informed by AGS23v1. Funding decisions adopted in the LTP 2024-2034 will inform the development of AGS23v2.

Auckland Council population projections (total Auckland) (ACMar23), March 2023

These are the regional population projections underlying the growth scenario. They are a custom series of projections procured from Stats NZ and used by the Auckland Council group as the basis for strategy and planning for Auckland’s future growth and investment decisions.

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Auckland Council, October 2024

Please send any questions to research@aucklandcouncil.govt.nz

Other data files

Auckland Council capacity for growth study 2022/2023. Data: business capacity

Auckland Council capacity for growth study 2022/2023. Data: residential capacity, part 1

Auckland Council capacity for growth study 2022/2023. Data: residential capacity, part 2

Relevant Auckland Council technical publications

Capacity for growth study 2012: methodology and assumptions

Housing assessment for the Auckland region. National Policy Statement on Urban Development 2020

National policy statement on urban development capacity 2016: Housing, business development Auckland