Population projections

In March 2023, Auckland Council procured a set of three customised population projection scenarios for the Auckland region from Stats NZ (known as ACMar23 projections). These, together with two previously published Stats NZ projection scenarios, form the basis for Auckland Council’s regional population projections which will be used in council’s strategic planning for the Auckland Council Housing and Business Assessment, and potentially the 2024-2034 Long-term Plan (LTP). The 2021-2031 LTP scenario, known as i11v6, is also provided for comparison.

The tables provided in the spreadsheet download link at the right include the projections and assumptions used in the scenarios. The three customised ACMar23 scenarios use revised migration assumptions. These projections also include adjustments made to the natural increase component of growth to account for the demographic shifts related to the revised migration assumptions.

The sub-regional distribution of these projections will be informed by the Auckland Council Future Development Strategy, the Housing and Business Assessment and other relevant information (opportunities and constraints) in the coming months.

Users should note that the Stats NZ December 2022 local board level projections, and the Auckland Council Macro Strategic Model zone level distribution in i11v6 may be different from the new Auckland Council distribution that is yet to be developed.

Auckland Council May 2023.