Auckland Council technical report

Housing capacity modelling report: Housing intensification and resilience (Plan Change 120)

Executive summary

A plan-enabled capacity assessment has been completed as part of the technical work programme to support the Council’s decision to withdraw Plan Change 78: Intensification (PC78) in part, including withdrawal of the Medium Density Residential Standards (MDRS).

The withdrawal of PC78 in part was enabled by changes to the RMA through the Resource Management (Consenting and Other System Changes) Amendment Act 2025. The Amendment Act amended the RMA to provide Auckland Council with the ability to withdraw its Intensification Planning Instrument (PC78) and replace it with a new plan change via the Streamlined Planning Process (SPP).

The replacement Plan Change is now called Plan Change 120: Housing Intensification and Resilience (PC120) and is designed to meet the legislative requirements for withdrawing PC78 and continuing to give effect to the National Policy Statement on Urban Development 2020 (NPS-UD).

The new plan change is required to¹:

• Demonstrate at least the same amount of housing capacity ² that would have been enabled if PC78 (as notified) were made operative, and
• Enable building heights of at least 10 or 15 storeys within the walkable catchment of specified City Rail Link stations,³ and
• Give effect to Policy 3 of the National Policy Statement on Urban Development 2020 (NPSUD).

This report covers the technical details of how the ‘at least the same amount of housing capacity’ assessment has been undertaken, as well as presenting some of the results of the modelling.

Auckland Council now has greater discretion over where the capacity previously enabled by the PC78 response is located. This includes the ability to reduce development potential in hazard-prone areas, while still meeting additional intensification requirements in walkable catchments. However, the overall level of capacity cannot be reduced.

Compliance with this requirement will be demonstrated by comparing the outputs of Auckland Council's ‘Capacity for Growth model’, of ‘the baseline’ (PC78, excluding the City Centre zone and Auckland Light Rail Corridor and Special Housing Areas (modelled based on AUP(OIP)) and ‘the replacement’ plan change (PC120) ⁴ (excluding the City Centre zone). Modelling is commencing to compare PC78 as notified with PC78 as operative for the City Centre zone. Further modelling will be required to compare PC78 as notified with PC78 as operative for the Metropolitan Centre zone, once the Council has made decisions on the IHP recommendations and the provisions have become operative.

By evaluating the plan-enabled capacity of two different ‘plans’ with quite different planning provisions using the same May 2025 cadastral base and applying otherwise consistent assumptions to both outputs, any differences in those outputs can be attributed, as far as possible, to variations in zoning patterns, spatial coverage, and the specific rules or provisions within each zone under each of those ‘plans’.

The two ‘plans’ compared are:

“the Baseline” being Plan Change 78 as notified on 18 August 2022 within the then urban environment, excluding the City Centre zone, and with the Auckland Light Rail Corridor (ALR) and Special Housing Areas (SHA) (white out areas) modelled based on the AUP(OIP), as these areas were not included in the mapping for PC78.

“the replacement” being Plan Change 120, a draft plan change covering the current live zoned urban environment (which includes plan changes made operative between 18 August 2022 and 22 August 2025), excluding the City Centre zone.

Sites are assessed against the base zoning provisions (without consideration of Precincts5) and a subset of key height and bulk affecting overlays. Earlier versions of the replacement plan change have also been assessed as it was developed and iterated, including a full 13 June version as well as various tests and estimations, so the model's interim outputs have enabled planners and decision makers to refine their policy approaches based on the likely impact on housing capacity.

This report and the Capacity for Growth model have assessed housing capacity only. However, other aspects of development capacity, such as infrastructure readiness, commercial feasibility, and the likely uptake, are also important and will require further investigation. This is particularly relevant given the significant shifts in housing capacity identified in areas closer to the city centre and other high-demand locations. Due to these changes, it is reasonable to anticipate changes to feasible and reasonably expected to be realised capacity from that enabled by PC78, noting both PC78 and PC120 are significantly more enabling than the AUP(OIP). These broader aspects of development capacity will be addressed as part of Auckland Council’s next Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessment (HBA). 

Development Infrastructure is not necessarily currently designed, planned or financed to accommodate all of these changes, though in many cases, existing and planned infrastructure are either ‘intensification ready’ or planning and design are intensification aware. Infrastructure planning is a long-term and expensive process involving considerable public (and private) investment, as well as coordination and integration efforts. Infrastructure readiness will be an issue for further consideration going forward, but is out of scope for the purpose of this report. Most infrastructure is based around a network, whether Auckland-wide or a sub-regional area. Network considerations are critical when considering infrastructure investment and prioritisation to enable growth.

Addressing any infrastructure gap will require ongoing collaboration with providers and funders, supported by a clearer understanding of how development uptake may shift. We expect to see increased activity in newly upzoned areas where opportunities now better align with demand, as well as potential slowdowns in other areas that may not grow as much as previously anticipated, reflecting both subtle and significant shifts in development patterns driven by these newly enabled locations.

Housing capacity is a necessary starting point for this analysis. It is intended that the modelling and data described in this summary report provide a launching point for further informed and evidence-based discussions as this process proceeds.

To aid in this objective, reports and results data will be made available on www.knowledgeauckland.org.nz in due course.

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1. Schedule 1, Clause 4 Resource Management (Consenting and Other System Changes) Amendment Act 2025.

2. Schedule 3C, Clause 1 Interpretation: “housing capacity, in relation to the Auckland Unitary Plan …, means the housing that the plan enables as a permitted activity, controlled activity, or restricted discretionary activity”.

3. Over and above the ‘at least 6 storeys’ and other intensification requirements applying to other walkable catchments and zones.

4. This is complicated by other recent or pending amendments to the AUP(OIP) via: (1) City Centre Zone having been amended already by PC78 hearings and recommendations that were made operative on 6 June 2025, where modelling is yet to be undertaken, and (2) PC78 Metropolitan Centre Zone hearings which have also completed, but the Council has not yet made decisions on the IHP recommendations so modelling cannot yet be undertaken. Modelling will be completed to compared PC78 as notified with PC78 as operative for the City Centre and Metropolitan Centre zones in due course.

5. A qualitative assessment of the impact of Precincts relative to base zoning is being undertaken by others and will be made available in due course.

Auckland Council, October 2025

See also

Auckland Council website

Plan change 120 PC 120: Housing intensification and Resilience

Submissions close 5pm, 19 December 2025.