Covid-19: economic scenarios, New Zealand Treasury
14 April 2020
Source:New Zealand Government
Extract from the Minister's press release:
...The Treasury has released a range of scenarios for the economy, based on assumptions of different amounts of time under the Alert Levels. The report shows how extra Government spending will cushion the blow by protecting jobs and supporting businesses. ...
The scenarios show:
- That unemployment can be kept below 10%, and return to 5% in 2021 with additional Government support. Work is already well advanced on further fiscal support.
- Without additional support, unemployment could have hit 13.5% under scenario 1 (four weeks in Level 4), while scenarios requiring more time in Level 4 showed a peak of 17.5%-26%.
- New Zealand’s underlying strength means the economy can bounce back to be $70 billion larger by 2024 than in 2019. ...